India powers ahead with plan to double installed capacity to 900 GW

India is set to double its installed power capacity from 480 GW to 900 GW over the next decade, driven by rising demand, the expansion of renewable energy sources, and significant transmission upgrades.

Over the past decade and a half, India’s power sector has undergone significant evolution. We have all witnessed this shift. As of now, the total installed power capacity is close to 484 gigawatts, and as of June and July, 50 per cent of this installed capacity has come from renewable sources. This represents a significant shift from the past decade. If we roll back to around 2013–2014, the contribution of renewables to the power sector began. And in just one decade, it has grown from almost zero to 50 percent. According to the National Electricity Plan, by 2032–2034, this contribution is expected to reach 65–70 percent. The Government of India’s Net Zero target for 2070 is guiding all related policies, transmission development and renewable energy initiatives, whether solar, wind, or biogas.

Power demand surge

Examining the consumption trend, around 2012–13, the average per capita consumption in India was approximately 700 units. After a decade, it has doubled to 1,400 units, with an average annual growth rate of 7 per cent, and is expected to double again in the next 10 years. For context, the U.S has a per capita consumption of 12,000 units, which is nine times India’s current figure. If we aim to become a developed economy by 2047, as envisioned by the Prime Minister, we must move toward that level of consumption. This reflects a massive transformation not just in generation but also in transmission and distribution. In our school days, we were familiar with power shortages, but today, even a 10–20 minute outage in metro cities sparks social media posts. That reflects how far we have come in terms of accessibility and infrastructure, like communication and smart metering.

To share a few numbers, the government plans a 50 per cent increase in transmission lines over the next 10 years. Currently, India has approximately 4.8 lakh circuit kilometres (ckm) of transmission lines, and the plan is to expand this to 7 lakh circuit kilometres (ckm). What we built over the past 70 years is now poised to double in size in just 10 years. Similarly, transmission capacity is projected to rise from 1.25 million MVA to around 2 million MVA, with a massive investment of ₹9 lakh crore planned over the next decade. Our peak demand is now around 250 GW, and this is expected to rise with increased urbanisation, industrialisation, and appliance usage, such as air conditioning. The demand is expected to touch 350–400 GW in the next 10 years. To meet that, the installed capacity needs to double from 480 GW to 900 GW. That is why such a large investment is being planned across transmission and distribution.

Strengthening distributed renewable capacity

As transmission grows, distribution must be enhanced through the use of smart metering, artificial intelligence, blockchain, and more. The government’s focus on rooftop solar, biogas plants and microgrids is strengthening distributed renewable capacity. Earlier, we heard about ultra-mega coal-based power plants, especially around 2006–07. Today, it is all about gigawatt-scale solar and wind projects. However, thermal plants that operate on a base load are slow to respond to changing demand throughout the day. Renewables, although flexible and efficient, introduce variability and weather dependence, resulting in system instability. Our grid wasn’t built for this kind of load behaviour. That is where STATCOMs and other technologies help maintain grid stability and frequency. Today, with smart metering and blockchain, consumers can also become producers by installing rooftop solar. These distributed units introduce variability to the system, which is where AI helps with load forecasting and demand prediction. Manually handling this is no longer feasible. Through blockchain, we can implement smart contracts, automated billing and even enable peer-to-peer energy trading.

These transformations, which we did not see in the last decade, will certainly be evident in the next 10 years. This will completely transform the way the power sector operates. Hence, there is a strong need for skill development in AI, blockchain and related fields. Without updating college and university curricula, it will be challenging to meet the 2047 goals.