AI powers hydro operations, leading to efficiency and RE integration

Hydro power follows the load in the grid, unlike solar and wind power sources, and provides the inertia to withstand the grid fluctuations. This reason will establish hydro power as a sustainable relevance for an appropriate energy mix and contribute to achieving carbon neutrality by 2070.

India is endowed with a hydro power potential of around 1,45,320 MW from around 592 hydroelectric schemes, out of which approximately 49628.17 MW has been harnessed till now in the form of large hydro projects, which constitute approximately 10 per cent of the total installed capacity. The power mix as of August 2025 is 49 percent from thermal power, 38.3 percent from renewables (solar, wind, and small hydro), 10 percent from large hydro, and 1.8 percent from nuclear power generation out of the total installed capacity, which stands at 502 GW.

Image- India Electricity Installed Capacity Mix as of August 2025

According to the World Resources Institute Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (WRI CAIT), India’s GHG profile in 2014 was dominated by emissions from the energy sector, which accounted for 68.7 percent of total emissions. Within the energy sector, 49 percent of emissions were due to electricity and heat generation. Hence, India is on a mission to reduce GHG emissions by increasing the generation from renewable sources, such as solar, wind, and hydro, which have now been declared renewable.

The country has set ambitious clean energy goals, targeting 500 GW of non-fossil fuel installed capacity by 2030, with 50 percent of generation capacity coming from renewables (including hydro), and to reach net-zero emissions by 2070. By 2032, the installed capacity of the country would reach around 900 GW, out of which a large hydro share with an installed capacity of 62 GW will be 7 percent. However, in order to complement the huge addition of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources (solar and wind), Pumped Storage Hydro Projects would be required to the tune of 27 GW as per the NEP (2022-2032), which is about 3 percent. Hence, hydro mix by 2030 would be standing at 10 percent and solar at 40 percent, and wind at 13 percent. Thermal generation would be limited to around 32 percent.

Image- India’s Electricity Installed Capacity Mix. Projected for Year 2032

Hydro power, due to its unique attribute of faster response to changes to the grid frequency and the load demand, makes an ideal source to facilitate peaking power, black start, ramping up and down, etc. This flexibility is crucial as other VRE sources are not adorned with such attributes. Hydro power follows the load in the grid, unlike solar and wind power sources, and provides the inertia to withstand the grid fluctuations. These are some of the reasons that will establish hydro power, its sustainable relevance for an appropriate energy mix, and contribute to achieving carbon neutrality by 2070.

As per a CII report, when India becomes Vikshit Bharat by 2047, total installed power capacity will reach approximately 2100 GW with VRE capacity of 1200 GW and PSP capacity of 116 GW. The Hydro share is expected to remain within 8-9 percent.

Artificial Intelligence in hydro power operations

In India, Artificial Intelligence (AI) is becoming more and more prevalent in hydropower operations, supporting everything from hybrid energy optimisation to flood forecasting to equipment maintenance. The following are some of the major applications of AI:

Predictive maintenance: Refers to the reduction in unscheduled and forced outages by using AI to evaluate sensor data, such as vibration, temperature, and lubrication, etc., to integrate and analyse real-time data and predict equipment failures before they actually occur. Integration with a digital twin helps to simulate performance, compare with actual data, and improve decision-making.

Flood and inflow forecasting: The use of AI, combined with automatic water level measurement sensors at multiple locations in rivers (or upstream of dams/barrages), aids in flood forecasting, providing early warnings to safeguard personnel and infrastructure. These data, in conjunction with inflow forecasting derived from the IMD data, can predict the flood in advance and enable the developers to take pre-emptive actions. It also supports more intelligent trade-off decisions by optimising maintenance scheduling and reservoir operation/ generation planning, considering inflow data, tariff, and maintenance cost, etc.

Environment monitoring and dam safety: To forecast possible structural hazards and improve dam safety, AI is used to process data from Internet of Things (IoT) sensors that track various aspects of dams, such as seepage, inclination, movement, stress, and seismic activity.

Optimisation of hybrid solar-hydro: AI coordinates the supply and demand in real-time by forecasting solar availability, controlling water usage, treating hydro as a “Natural Battery,” and optimising dispatch. AI models may also predict precipitation, inflows, and evaporation to optimise reservoir management, facilitating irrigation, environmental flows, and the production of electricity. AI enables optimisation of manpower and asset management by facilitating remote operation, monitoring, and predictive maintenance.

Forecasting hybrid solar-wind generations: AI models utilise satellite imagery, local sensor data, and weather forecasts from IMD/NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) to predict key parameters such as irradiance, temperature, cloud cover, and wind speed, thereby controlling hybrid generation and informing apportionment schedule generation from various sources.

Hydro projects/ PSP location identification: AI models (e.g, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs)) when combined with GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and remote sensing, can analyse topography, elevation, and river flow data, identify suitable elevation differences (head) and proximity to reservoirs (for PSP), and further predict potential energy yield from topographical features. Global tools like the Global Pumped Hydro Atlas (by ANU) use AI to map thousands of potential PSP sites using topography and GIS data.

Hydrological and climate pattern prediction: AI (models like RNNs or LSTM) can enhance streamflow forecasting using rainfall, snowmelt, and upstream catchment data, which is essential for estimating firm power potential and planning seasonal storage or pumping schedules for PSPs. 

Challenges slowing down hydro expansion

Certain challenges slow down the expansion of hydro projects in the country.

Submergence of forest/habitation and town/villages: In many mega hydro projects, the construction of large dams causes the submergence of existing towns and villages, leading to the displacement of local populations and the fear of losing their traditional homes and cultures. Such fear creates resistance among the local population and holds back the development of large hydro projects.

Land acquisition: The non-availability of proper land records in some North East states leads to delays and discourages the development of hydro projects due to the methodology of award calculation. Delays in statutory approvals, such as environment and forest clearances, and in land acquisition (especially for forest, private, and tribal land), result in project hindrance.

Lack of adequate infrastructure: Poor last-mile connectivity to potential hydro project sites in remote regions (e.g., Northeast, Himalayas), which lack all-weather roads, rail access, bridges, etc., is a deterrent to the development of these projects. The lack of infrastructure causes difficulties and delays in transporting turbines, generators, and other heavy construction equipment.

Hydropower projects being located in remote areas and away from load centres require the construction of long, expensive transmission lines to connect to the main power grid. Construction of transmission lines up to the pooling point to ensure grid connectivity and modernisation, and upgradation of the existing infrastructure is required, with an increase in hydro power capacity.

Geological uncertainties: In many hydro projects, inadequate geological investigation before work commencement makes the smooth construction of critical components, such as tunnelling, underground powerhouse construction, and dam foundation work, risky, often leading to cost and time overruns. In addition to these uncertainties, there are now occurrences of unprecedented disasters due to climate change effects, such as landslides, flash floods, and debris flows, which cause constraints in developing hydro projects.

Non-signing of PPAs for hydro projects: The non-tie-up of funds (Financial Closure) and the non-signing of PPAs due to higher initial tariffs are additional deterrents for developers undertaking new projects. However, the government (GoI) guidelines of March 2019 address the issue to some extent by lowering the project cost as well as project tariff during the initial years by incentivising some of the infrastructure development costs.

Power evacuation issues: The  Schedule of the power evacuation system needs to match the commissioning of the hydro projects. However, in many projects, transmission projects/substations and distribution schemes are stuck due to land for substations/ compensation for land value diminution/forest clearances/RoWs/ approach roads, etc.

Limited OEMs and a lack of experienced and financially sound civil contractors are also a current bottleneck in hydro power expansion.

Skilled workforce: The limited availability of a skilled workforce for critical civil and EM works in hydro projects poses a significant challenge to the timely development of hydro projects.

Policy change: Changes to the policy during the project’s implementation are a major reason for the delay in developing large hydro projects. The policy to reduce submergence area/ required land acquisition results in a reduction in water storage, leading to a decrease in energy generation and ultimately making the project economically unviable.

Role of PSPs in balancing intermittent renewables

Pumped Storage Projects operate much like conventional hydro power plants, except they can use the same water over and over again with reversible pump-turbines.

At the time of demand, energy is generated by discharging water from the upper reservoir to the lower reservoir under gravity through a water conductor system, which rotates the turbine to generate electricity. 

The same reversible turbine acts as a pump for storing energy by pumping water from the lower reservoir to the upper reservoir using surplus electric power from the grid.

Some of the major attributes of Pumped Storage Projects, which make them different from the conventional hydro projects, are as follows:

1. Shorter tunnel lengths characterise PSPs due to the proximity of project components. The project area becomes smaller.

2.  PSPs can be customised as per the availability of head, discharge, topography, and geology.

3. Minimum forest area/R & R issues/disturbance to riverine ecology/minimum wildlife disturbance.

4. Optimum head availability of 200-700 m and Reversible Francis Pump-Turbines are used.

4. Minimum construction of new components like reservoirs, etc, as some of the PSPs can be planned with existing reservoirs.

5. Short water conductor system with L/H ratio of 10-12 makes the projects predictive of economical viability.

6. In PSPs, water requirement is small (for first filling and make-up only), depending upon the duration of the cycle of operation, ranging from 4-6 hours. The same water is recycled repeatedly during generation through a turbine and then pumped back through the same machine, which acts as a reversible pump.  Occasional replenishment is required due to evaporation and seepage losses only. Hence, reservoir sizes are small and submergence is small.

7. Round-trip efficiency of PSPs is 75 percent- 80 percent.

8. The life of Pumped Hydro Storage Projects is 40 years, which may be extended beyond a similar span with proper maintenance of the structures and EM equipment.

9. Pumped Hydro Storage Projects are an Energy Storage System which are available at the grid scale.

10.  PSPs can be located close to the load centres, which saves the cost of evacuation systems.

11. Lowest storage cost among all modes of energy storage.

PSPs can facilitate various operations, including Black Start, fast ramping up and down, fast switching between generator and pumping modes, reactive power compensation, and fast synchronisation. These features of PSPs ensure stability in the grid and round-the-clock renewable energy integration.

It is imperative to note that hydro power, including pumped storage and small hydro, remains crucial for the clean energy push in the country. Despite challenges, its flexibility, reliability, and role in balancing intermittent renewables ensure long-term relevance. With AI-driven optimisation and sustainable expansion, hydro power will complement solar and wind, stabilise the grid, and support the country’s journey to net-zero by 2070.

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Authored by:

Jiban Chandra Kakoti, General Manager (Hydro Engineering)- NTPC