India’s low solar tariffs face uncertainty, but capacity will grow

Low solar bids, while causing disruption in the power sector, have little financial buffers to face challenges such as cost overrun, increased interest rate and counterparty delays, according to India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra). An analysis, where specific project features have been assumed by Ind-Ra, shows that a tariff of ` 2.44/kWh could have an equity internal rate of return of 10 per cent.

Falling panel prices and increased competition have contributed to aggressive bids. In addition, an increase in panel conversion efficiency has contributed to a reduction in land required for panels and a fall in the balance of system cost. Falling panel prices have encouraged developers to have a high DC/AC capacity ratio to optimise supply.

Risk allocation in tenders has taken centre stage in bids. Tenders floated consciously address payment security and grid curtailment to attract low bids. The Rewa bid started this trend. Solar Energy Corporation of India and NTPC Limited (‘IND AAA’/Stable) have witnessed low bids from developers, because of the comfort derived from their credit profiles.

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